“Seri kompetisi ini menunjukkan bahwa hal ini masih merupakan masalah yang sulit dipecahkan dan sekarang kombinasi transformasi data menjadi format yang dapat dikonsumsi dari berbagai sumber, memahami perbedaan dalam pemodelan prediksi jangka pendek vs. prediksi jangka panjang, dan menggunakan model machine learning yang lebih sederhana dengan beberapa penyesuaian tampaknya memiliki kinerja yang terbaik,” kata Rohan Rao, kompetitor Kaggle yang berbasis di India. “Saya berharap dengan lebih banyak ketersediaan data dan penelitian tentang bagaimana virus menyebar di berbagai negara, kita dapat menambahkan fitur cerdas untuk meningkatkan dan mengoptimalkan prediksi ini dan menyesuaikannya untuk setiap geografi.”
Peserta telah berhasil menggunakan ansambel lanjutan model machine learning seperti XGBoost dan LightGBM (ex1, ex2, ex3). Peserta juga telah mengidentifikasi sumber penting dari data eksternal yang berpotensi bisa membuat prediksi semakin akurat (ex1), termasuk ukuran populasi, kepadatan populasi, distribusi usia, tingkat merokok, indikator ekonomi, dan tanggal lockdown secara nasional. Dengan memeriksa kontribusi relatif dari berbagai fitur model yang menggunakan teknik seperti kepentingan fitur dan Nilai SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations), peserta mampu memperjelas faktor-faktor yang paling prediktif dalam memprediksi infeksi COVID-19 dan kematian. Ada banyak pekerjaan menarik yang dilakukan dengan menggunakan neural network dan mesin yang didorong gradien, dan kami sarankan Anda untuk memeriksa kode (Python/R), yang semuanya telah menjadi open source.
Data publik vs. COVID-19
Kaggle juga menjadi host tantangan kurasi set data dengan tujuan menemukan, menguratori, dan membagikan set data COVID-19—terutama yang dapat berguna untuk memprediksi penyebaran virus. Pengajuan yang menjadi pemenang sejauh ini meliputi:
Dengan mempertimbangkan kebijakan regional, tanggal pelaksanaan, dan protokol pengujian, Anda bisa membuat kesimpulan berbasis data yang jauh lebih baik.
Sejalan dengan itu, penayang set data juga bisa dengan cepat menjalankan tugas mandiri atau tantangan di Kaggle. Misalnya, Roche Data Science Coalition (RDSC) baru-baru ini memublikasikan kumpulan set data terkait COVID yang tersedia untuk umum dan membuat tantanganyang berfokus pada upaya untuk menjawab pertanyaan paling mendesak yang diteruskan kepada mereka dari responden garis depan dalam layanan kesehatan dan kebijakan publik. Kaggle adalah platform gratis yang memungkinkan semua pengguna mengupload set data, menjadi host tantangan analisis data, dan memublikasikan notebook—dan kami mendorong data scientist dan penayang data untuk bersama-sama melawan COVID-19.
Kesimpulan
Data scientist di seluruh dunia bekerja sama untuk membantu komunitas medis mengalahkan COVID-19, dan kami membutuhkan bantuan Anda. Anda bisa terus mengikuti perkembangan tantangan kami di kaggle.com/covid19, dan melihat progres yang dibuat komunitas dalam mencapai tujuannya seperti yang dibahas di kaggle.com/covid-19-contributions.
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